mercredi 1 mai 2013

"Death of Tablet" ? Not really but going toward the "End of the Screen"

Thorsten Heins,  BlackBerry's CEO has recently predicted that the tablet are not a good business model and that this market will shrink drastically in the next five years.

Many journalists have only reported his declaration without really analysing the market trends and the impact of newcoming and mature technology.

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First, when looking at the evolution of smarphone screen's size and tablets screen's size the difference is now about 3 inches, the latter being more and more cannibalized by the first.

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Second, the OS's are virtually the same whether you are using a smartphone or a tablet. Hence, you won't do more with a tablet than with a smartphone. Actually it's the contrary if you are using a wi-fi only tablet.

The smartphone appears more versatile than its bigger counterpart.
Reminds you something ? yes, the dinausaur disappeareance.
In a more and more mobile world, big items happen to be a hassle.

Many expectations have been put on tablet and even if efforts have been done with work applications, it turn out be limited to its display functionnality for viewing movies or pictures. Here is the Achilles's heel, it's display function. And here's why.

Indeed, more than that, we should analyse Mr Heins' prediction and go beyond to understand that it means more if not the death but the appearance of new technologies that might change radically the smartphone.

1. Shared screen
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With screens being everywhere and allthemore connected, it is reasonable to think that there will be plenty of possibilities to display the content of your smartphone (and it's already the case) on your TV, on your car's dashboard, etc ... On the other end, a pico-projector, again some smartphones have it, allow us to display on any surface. This means that we are heading toward a screen size that will adapt to our needs and not have a limitation.

2. Holography
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Additionally, the recent advances on holographic technologies help us foresee a great usage of mobile handsets. 
The holographic images could be displayed right out of the handset or through specific glasses. 

Of course, it is to date impossible to say when such technology will be accessible for mass market. 

3. The end of the Smartphone ?
In conclusion, the end of the tablet would also mean the end of the smartphone as we know it today. Apple's rumor move toward the watch and the launch of Google glasses appear to me as smartphone killer. In his declaration, Mr. Thorsten Heins has declared he has no intention to be a copycat. Sticking to a smartphone as we know it today is also a risky business also financially supported by mobile operators. I hope then that blackberry has already introduced mutation genes to generate a new specie of mobile handset, otherwise we will continue to watch the extinction of a Mammoth.
Hence, the future of the smarphone, in the next five years could probably be a mix of :


So what about you, what's your prediction ?

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